TÜRKiYE'DE İSTİKRAR SÜRECİNİN MALİYETLERİ: YVAB (SVAR) YÖNTEMİYLE FEDAKARLIK ORANININ TAHMİNİ

An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models

This paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction into the SVAR methodology. Particular emphasize is put on the approach to identification in SVAR models, which is compared to identification in simultaneous equation models. It is shown that SVAR models are useful tools to analyze the dynamics of a model by subjecting it to an unexpected shock, whereas simultaneous equation models are bett...

A Svar Approach for the Spanish Regions

Within the approaches that have been applied to assess the impact of public capital on economic growth, this paper estimates the dynamic effects of public infrastructures using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology for the Spanish regions. From a methodological point of view, our work contains different innovative features with respect to the previous studies using VAR models. T...

Assessing identifying restrictions in SVAR models

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to assess if the data support candidate set-identifying restrictions for Vector Autoregressive models. The researcher is uncertain about the validity of some sign restrictions that she is contemplating to use. She therefore expresses her uncertainty with a prior distribution that covers the parameter space both where the restrictions are satisfied and whe...

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with External Instrument SVAR

We explore the use of external instrument SVAR to identify monetary policy shocks. We identify a forward guidance shock as the monetary shock component having zero instant impact on the policy rate. A contractionary forward guidance shock raises both future output and price level, stressing the relative importance of revealing policymakers’ view on future output and price level over committing ...

Infinite-variance, alpha-stable shocks in monetary SVAR